Here is a cool report about a group of people whose predictions are often better than those of CIA analysts:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent
The problem with the CIA is that they do cherry pick intelligence to arrive at conclusions tailored to what their bosses want to hear. Personally I think the CIA should be abolished, and its members should be prosecuted for any and all crimes they have committed:
http://sainthoward.blogspot.com/2014/03/use-rico-act-to-prosecute-cia-crimes.html
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